What Is Simpsons Paradox in Statistics

A  paradox  is a statement or phenomenon that on the surface seems contradictory. Paradoxes help to reveal the underlying truth beneath the surface of what appears to be absurd. In the field of statistics, Simpsons paradox demonstrates what kinds of problems result from combining data from several groups. With all data, we need to exercise caution. Where did it come from? How was it obtained? And what is it really saying? These are all good questions that we should ask when presented with data. The very surprising case of Simpsons paradox shows us that sometimes what the data seem to be saying is not really the case. An Overview of the Paradox Suppose we are observing several groups, and establish a relationship or  correlation  for each of these groups. Simpson’s paradox says that when we combine all of the groups together and look at the data in aggregate form, the correlation that we noticed before may reverse itself. This is most often due to lurking variables that have not been considered, but sometimes it is due to the numerical values of the data. Example To make a little more sense of Simpsons paradox, lets look at the following example. In a certain hospital, there are two surgeons. Surgeon A operates on 100 patients, and 95 survive. Surgeon B operates on 80 patients and 72 survive. We are considering having surgery performed in this hospital and living through the operation is something that is important. We want to choose the better of the two surgeons. We look at the data and use it to calculate what percentage of surgeon As patients survived their operations and compare it to the survival rate of the patients of surgeon B. 95 patients out of 100 survived with surgeon A, so 95/100 95% of them survived.72 patients out of 80 survived with surgeon B, so 72/80 90% of them survived. From this analysis, which surgeon should we choose to treat us? It would seem that surgeon A is the safer bet. But is this really true? What if we did some further research into the data and found that originally the hospital had considered two different types of surgeries, but then lumped all of the data together to report on each of its surgeons. Not all surgeries are equal, some were considered high-risk emergency surgeries, while others were of a more routine nature that had been scheduled in advance. Of the 100 patients that surgeon A treated, 50 were high risk, of which three died. The other 50 were considered routine, and of these 2 died. This means that, for a routine surgery, a patient treated by surgeon A has a 48/50 96% survival rate. Now we look more carefully at the data for surgeon B and find that of 80 patients, 40 were high risk, of which seven died. The other 40 were routine and only one died. This means that a patient has a 39/40 97.5% survival rate for a routine surgery with surgeon B. Now which surgeon seems better? If your surgery is to be a routine one, then surgeon B is actually the better surgeon. If we look at all surgeries performed by the surgeons, A is better. This is quite counterintuitive. In this case, the lurking variable of the type of surgery affects the combined data of the surgeons. History of Simpsons Paradox Simpson’s paradox is named after Edward Simpson, who first described this paradox in the 1951 paper The Interpretation of Interaction in Contingency Tables from the  Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Pearson and Yule each observed a similar paradox half a century earlier than Simpson, so Simpson’s paradox is sometimes also referred to as the Simpson-Yule effect. There are many wide-ranging applications of the paradox in areas as diverse as  sports statistics  and  unemployment data. Any time that data is aggregated, watch out for this paradox to show up.

The Dark Romanticism Of Edgar Allan Poe - 1497 Words

Edgar Allan Poe was a prominent writer during the era of Romanticism, but Poe’s poems focused primarily on the Dark Romanticism, developed under Romanticism. The era of Romanticism was commonly described as showing raw emotion, but there was still a conflict in the story. The purpose of Romanticism was for the writer to feel free; there were no rules when it came to this form of writing. Dark Romanticism was looking at the gothic side of stories rather than the heroism stories, which focused more on death, and the flaws of humans. Dark Romanticism also focused on the evil aspect of writings rather than the heroic part to stories. Edgar Allan Poe’s poems are shown more in this type of writing rather than the typical Romantic writings. When looking more into Dark Romanticism readers are able to see how Poe could have connected his personal turmoil to his poems. The University of Delaware’s library says, â€Å"Suffering for offenses against God, man and Nature, the hero-villains wander the earth, alone and misunderstood. Their personal torment in a vast universe is emphasized by desolate settings of icebound seas, jagged mountains and bottomless abysses: imagery that would inspire artistic, literary, and musical compositions,† (Dark Romanticism). This quote shows readers that writers during the Dark Romanticism era used their own sufferings in order to make the stories seem more dramatic and almost human. Looking into the poems â€Å"Annabel Lee† and â€Å"The Raven†, readers are able to seeShow MoreRelatedEdgar Allan Poe : A Gothic Romanticism Or Dark Romanticist1562 Words   |  7 Pages Edgar Allan Poe is often considered one of the most famous, influential writers of the 19th century, and even today he is still revered for his more famous works, which are still taught and studied in schools and universities around the United States. His work is considered to be heavily influenced by the many hardships he faced during his lifetime, which can be seen in almost all of his poems or short stories. Poe is considered a gothic romanticism or dark romanticist, due to his fascination ofRead MoreEssay on The Romantic Side of Edgar Allan Poe 1061 Words   |  5 Pageshas a trace of romanticism in it. Romanticism started around the 1800’s as a contradiction to rationalism. Rationalism was a thinking that attempted to use rational thinking and reason to solve the problems being faces at its time. Romanticism is basically the opposite of those thoughts. Romanticism is described as, a revolt against Rationalism that affected literature and the other arts, beginning in the late eighteenth century.(Elements of Literature, Page 1179). 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Honestly as horrible it is that he had to go through all of that we should be grateful because without his suffering these masterpieces wouldn’t have been fabricated. While intensifying his philosophy for short stories Edgar Allan Poe wrote â€Å"The Fall of the House of Usher† reflecting the characteristics of Dark RomanticRead MoreSetting in The Fall of the House of Usher by Edgar Allen Poe881 Words   |  4 PagesSetting in The Fall of the House of Usher Dark Romanticism was very popular in 19th century America. It is literary genre that emerged from Romanticism and Transcendentalism. Tenets of Transcendentalism included finding God in nature, and seeing beyond the physical world. Dark romanticism examines the conflict between good and evil and the psychological effect of sin and guilt in the human mind. One very famous Dark Romantic writer is Edgar Allen Poe. Poe is very well known for his many poems andRead MoreAnalysis Of Edgar Allan Poe s The Raven And The Fall Of The House Of Usher 896 Words   |  4 PagesEdgar Allan Poe is an extremely well known American writer and is famous for his horrific and mysterious works such as, â€Å"The Raven† and â€Å"The Fall of the House of Usher.† Poe was born in 1809 in Boston, Massachusetts in an era that seems to have many dark and ominous writers and pieces of literature originating from that time period. Poe is said to have launched the interest in many of the detective type stories that we read from modern day writers. â€Å"In the early 1800s, romanticism was the dominantRead MoreEdgar Allan Poe Biography. By. Alyssa Marshall.1260 Words   |  6 Pages Edgar Allan Poe Biography By Alyssa Marshall Mrs. Guinn English III March 6, 2017 Abstract Edgar Allan Poe was a writer in the â€Å"Gothic Era†, many of his stories genres are horror like â€Å" The Masque of The Red Death†, mystery such as â€Å" The Fall of The House of Usher†, lost love as in â€Å" The Raven†, and obsession such as â€Å" The Pit and The Pendulum†. Edgar’s poemsRead MoreAn Analysis Of Edgar Allan Poe s Life1497 Words   |  6 Pageswith an Author Framework Edgar Allan Poe was born in Boston, on January 19th, 1809 and was best known as a writer of dark poetry and short stories. Poe had an interesting and somewhat tragic upbringing , he was orphaned as a young child and then raised by an affluent couple called John and Frances Allan from Richmond, Virginia. Poe spent 5 years in England as a young child and studied different languages , however his universityRead MoreEdgar Allan Poe s The Masque Of The Red Death1300 Words   |  6 Pagesin which Poe wrote his short story, Masque of the Red Death According to Edgar Allan Poe in his short story, â€Å"The Masque of the Red Death† â€Å"No pestilence had ever been so fatal, or so hideous.† Even though plagues had been common throughout the years, none of them had been as hideous as society was during the Movement. In his short story â€Å"The Masque of the Red Death†, Edgar Allan Poe demonstrates that people are naturally born evil, during the Anti-Transcendentalism a nd Dark Romanticism time periodRead MoreSymbolism Of The Raven By Edgar Allen Poe1045 Words   |  5 Pagesinvisible† (Morris). Symbolism increases the meaning of the story, as well as captivates the reader’s attention to a deeper degree. It encourages the reader to think and attempt to find the hidden meaning within the narrative itself. As a poet Edgar Allen Poe occupied his narratives with literary elements. Symbols become one of the most predominant elements in his works of literature. Consequently, in his concise poem â€Å"The Raven,† the literary element most noted by the reader is symbolism. Characters

Appear Other Segment Of The Fringe Benefit â€Myassignmenthelp.Com

Question: Discuss About The Appear Other Segment Of The Fringe Benefit? Answer: Introducation A residual fringe benefit takes place when an employer renders services or the property utilization to an employee that does not appear in any other segment of the fringe benefit. It needs to be noted that exemption can be availed where the employer provides a no private use declaration and various other situations (Barcokzy, 2010). A residual fringe benefit surrounds the services provided by the employer like travel or any manual work, or the utilization of property. If the advantages consist of goods, as well as services then the component of goods is valued as a property fringe benefit and services component are tagged as a residual fringe benefit (ANU, 2017). On the other hand, if the goods supply is major to the services, the management of repairs involves the spare support supply, the advantages can be considered totally as a residual fringe benefit. Fringe benefit contains benefit on the employers behalf and to another person on the employees behalf. The taxable value of FBT of the residual advantage is computed in a different manner that depends on whether it constitutes an external scenario or an in-house benefit. The otherwise rule of deduction applies to reduce the value of taxation provided the required validation is satisfied (Kenny, 2016). Taxable value can be denoted as the benefits cost price that means the market value where the benefit will be deductible otherwise and even declined by the contribution of the employee (ANU, 2017). For example, a 25%reduction will be present when the benefit pertains to an in house benefit. To ensure that exposure is not provided to fringe benefits in tune to the residual fringe benefits, specific items that are utilized in the performance of the activities of employees must be provided to the employees. Following are the exempt benefits The utilization of the equipment of the office for the activities of the employment apart from the motor vehicles by an employee. This reflects that when the equipment is utilized in contrast to the motor vehicles that constitutes exempt benefits (Fullerton et. at, 2017). Home accommodation is given to an employee that is needed for the purpose of work so that one can stay at his/her usual residence. There are various categories that define the residual fringe benefits. The below mentioned are the categories for the residual fringe benefits: Loan for equipment Granting of the loan (equipment) like computer, instruments of music for the private purpose for a longer time span. Employees benefits Payment made by the employee for the child education. This benefit pertains to the off-campus center of child care. Private travel When a travel is arranged for the employee on a regular basis. It pertains to the employee that includes travel insurance. Organization for private travel for the employee or family Sponsor A grant of access to the sporting or theatrical events on a continuous basis. This reflects that the entertainment is provided to the employee and that will come under the categorization of residual fringe benefits References ANU. (2017). Residual fringe benefits. Accessed September 13, 2017, from https://services.anu.edu.au/financial-management/taxation/residual-fringe-benefits Barcokzy, S. (2010). Australian Tax Casebook. CCH Australia Ltd Fullerton, I.G, Deutsch, R, Friezer, M.L, Hanley, P Snape, T. (2017). The Australian Tax Handbook Tax Return Edition 2017. Thomson Reuters: Australia Kenny, B. V. (2016). Australian Tax 2016. Thomson Reuters (Professional) Australia

Reaching My Goals Essay Example For Students

Reaching My Goals Essay My personal and professional goals are something I have stood by and strive to continue on a daily basis. My goals will not only progress my career, but be an example for my children. The following three professional and personal goals that I have developed over the past 2 years will describe my future. It is important that my children see how successful a person can be when they put their mind to something. I also want my children to understand the amount of time and effort it takes to achieve the goals I have set for myself. I am not a traditional student. I didnt start my college career until the age of despite the urging of my parents. I got married and started a family early at the age of twenty one and decided being when my children young is I began working as a CNA when my children got a little older I my job to downsizing the facility. I call this my blessing in disguise otherwise I have gone back to school to get my associates degree in 2009. I was making a living and supporting my family prior to losing my job. Financially, going from two incomes to one was difficult, but in the end it was worth it because the lessons I learned and the goals I achieved will show my children never give up on your dream and sometimes the path . I have had my Associates degree for two years. I was fortunate enough to get a job immediately out of school; and I find it very rewarding. Recently, Ive decided it was now or never to go back and get my Bachelors degree. I realize having my Bachelors degree will also help me support my growing family. According to Mahger (2011), The U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that bookkeepers, accountants and auditing clerks all jobs obtained with just an associate degree made a median salary of $34,030 in 2010. Those who complete a bachelors degree may have more earnings potential anywhere from $43,000 per year to $100,000. With adding an additional child last year and raising inflation , a larger salary would help give my children everything they need and . A Bachelors degree will also help me become a well-rounded person. Since I am a numbers person, my writing and theory ability could use some improvement. According to Weitz (2008), A well-rounded education is the pursuit of comprehensive knowledge, balanced across a wide range of subjects. With the purpose of education being to prepare students to become competent, contributing citizens, the broad content of a well-rounded education expands future options, professionally, socially, and personally. Liberal Arts and Classical Education are considered well-rounded studies designed to develop intellectual growth, versus studying for a specific skill or profession. Obtaining a Bachelors degree with not only improve my employment opportunities and providing upward career mobility, but also make me a better person. My main career goal is to become a senior analyst with my current employer, Investors Community Bank. I would have a lot more job responsibilities, and an overall larger contribution to the company. There are many advancement opportunities at my employer and becoming a senior analyst would be the next step to achieve. My senior analyst has been a great mentor to me and has greatly contributed to the analyst I am today. Senior analysts assist with training of new employees. I enjoy sharing my experiences and knowledge with anyone who could benefit from it. My professional and personal goals help me give me a path to follow and will help me achieve my full potential. My goals are achievable but challenging while being a mom, wife, and a full time worker, which pushes me even more.